Abdel r omran biography of mahatma

In my last post, I reflected on the big picture of theory in demography. I thought about questions like: What is the difference between models and theories? (None, if one subscribes to the model-based view of science), How “big” does the theory/model need to be? (As small or as big as you want it to be; it is okay to model unique events), and How does one begin to build social science theory in the era of data science? (With a combination of narrative explanation and empirical prediction).

In this post, I start reviewing demographic theory relevant to mortality convergence in the enlarged European Union by summarising Abdel R. Omran’s theory of the epidemiologic transition and its development over time.

One caveat before we start: my interest is in the high-income countries, so the review that follows mostly glosses over the work done related to other contexts.

There are several demographic theories that aim to explain and predict long term trends in mortality in an interna